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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward pattern. It often acts as a type of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic turnaround receives the prize. In practice, it fuels an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or simply the most shocking surprise.

But the current competition is fundamentally different. The list of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference winners fading and recent also-rans improving in unison. During an typical year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this turbulent and entertaining year, he's facing multiple other elite coaches.

Here is how the ideal vote could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been capable to create magic from broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost every bet – overhauling the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the building with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a typical year, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But the current isn't a normal campaign!

Where his case comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. But Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has engineered a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the off-field aspects, which wasn't a given after his early public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. From the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. But he has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would go off the track. A mid-year setback caused the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the season in October. Instead, it made it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed after that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still